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A Point Process Formulation for Long-term Propagation on Population Statistics
https://doi.org/10.20637/0002001383
https://doi.org/10.20637/00020013837b3da4a5-2ef6-4975-a2f3-add6cb2dda98
| 名前 / ファイル | ライセンス | アクション |
|---|---|---|
AA2430008006.pdf (2.6 MB)
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| Item type | WEKO3_シンポジウム等 / Symposium(1) | |||||||||
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| 公開日 | 2025-01-24 | |||||||||
| タイトル | ||||||||||
| タイトル | A Point Process Formulation for Long-term Propagation on Population Statistics | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 言語 | ||||||||||
| 言語 | eng | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | ||||||||||
| 資源タイプ識別子 | http://purl.org/coar/resource_type/c_5794 | |||||||||
| 資源タイプ | conference paper | |||||||||
| ID登録 | ||||||||||
| ID登録 | 10.20637/0002001383 | |||||||||
| ID登録タイプ | JaLC | |||||||||
| アクセス権 | ||||||||||
| アクセス権 | open access | |||||||||
| アクセス権URI | http://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2 | |||||||||
| 著者 |
DELANDE, Emmanuel
× DELANDE, Emmanuel
× TAILLAN, Christophe
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| 著者所属 | ||||||||||
| 著者所属 | French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES)(en), French National Centre for Space Studies (CNES)(en) | |||||||||
| 出版者 | ||||||||||
| 出版者 | Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)(en) 宇宙航空研究開発機構 (JAXA)(ja) |
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| bibliographic_information |
en : Proceedings of the 11th Space Debris Workshop ja : 第11回スペースデブリワークショップ講演資料集 p. 86-99, 発行日 2025-01-24 |
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| 会議概要 | ||||||||||
| 会議名 | The 11th Space Debris Workshop(en) 第11回スペースデブリワークショップ(ja) |
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| 主催機関 | Research and Development Directorate, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)(en) 宇宙航空研究開発機構研究開発部門 (JAXA)(ja) |
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| 開催期間 | 2024-10-28 - 2024-10-30 | |||||||||
| 開催会場 | Chofu Aerospace Center, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)(CAC)(en) 宇宙航空研究開発機構調布航空宇宙センター(JAXA)(CAC)(ja) |
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| 開催地 | Chofu, Tokyo (Hybrid)(en) 調布市, 東京 (ハイブリッド)(ja) |
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| 開催国 | JPN | |||||||||
| 抄録 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | The analysis of long-term collision risk space activities relies on the modelling of the evolution of orbital populations. Our ability to estimate the composition and individual states (position, velocity, etc.) of an initial population after decades or centuries of propagation has important implications in the quality of various risk analyses, such as the identification of orbits with a high density of debris, the collision risk induced by a fragmentation, or the construction of environmental indexes. Evolution models often involve a full representation of the population – i.e., every object is described with a full state – at an initial epoch, and the individual propagation of each object to subsequent evaluation epochs. These approaches are computationally prohibitive, and they do not account for the fact that individual states are often unnecessary for long-term analyses focusing instead on collective metrics (e.g., orbital densities, mean number of collisions, etc.). Point process models allow us to establish statistics on the initial population, rather than individual states for each member object, and to propagate these statistics through a dynamical model covering the size of the population (re-entries, launches, etc.) as well the orbital dynamics of objects. Statistics on the evaluated risk are then drawn from the statistics of the population, thus sparing us the need for expensive MonteCarlo simulations involving the sampling of various initial populations, followed by drawing of object births/deaths during the propagation horizon, etc. We will propose in this presentation some use cases of the point process formulation in to support various risk analyses, such as the construction of environmental maps, or the long-term evolution of orbital densities under several hypotheses of mitigation/remediation options. |
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| 言語 | en | |||||||||
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| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | Physical characteristics: Original contains color illustrations | |||||||||
| 言語 | en | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | ||||||||||
| 内容記述タイプ | Other | |||||||||
| 内容記述 | 形態: カラー図版あり | |||||||||
| 言語 | ja | |||||||||
| 出版タイプ | ||||||||||
| 出版タイプ | VoR | |||||||||
| 出版タイプResource | http://purl.org/coar/version/c_970fb48d4fbd8a85 | |||||||||
| 資料番号(Local) | ||||||||||
| 関連識別子 | 資料番号: AA2430008006 | |||||||||
